What the Abu Dhabi talks can and can’t deliver
US-mediated talks between Ukraine and Russia open in Abu Dhabi on 10–11 November. Expectations should be modest: these are working-level talks held while both sides are still fighting hard.
What is on the table
US envoy Steve Witkoff announced the talks on 3 November, and the Kremlin confirmed them the same day. President Zelenskyy has said he hopes they can open the way to a meeting with Vladimir Putin. Earlier rounds in Abu Dhabi produced positive language but no ceasefire.
The backdrop: a winter war on the grid
Russia is pressing its campaign against Ukraine’s energy system. Ukrainian energy company DTEK counted 78 strikes on its facilities in three days, and ballistic missiles hit Kyiv overnight on 6–7 November. Ukraine, for its part, has been striking Russian refineries. On the ground, Russian forces lost territory in October for the second month in a row. Neither side is negotiating from a position where it feels it must stop.
What the talks can deliver
Working-level talks are good at narrow, verifiable steps: prisoner exchanges, the return of children, and, most importantly this winter, a mutual pause on strikes against energy infrastructure. Agreeing an agenda for a leaders’ meeting would also count as progress.
What they can’t
The core issues of territory, security guarantees for Ukraine and sanctions relief for Russia need decisions at the top. They are unlikely to move in a two-day technical round.
Faultline scenarios, next three months. Base case (55%): talks continue without a ceasefire, Russia keeps striking the grid and the front moves little. Upside (20%): an energy truce or major exchange holds and opens the way to leader-level talks. Downside (25%): talks collapse and Russia intensifies winter strikes, causing prolonged blackouts.
What to watch
Whether both sides announce any concrete outcome after 11 November; whether strikes on energy sites fall in the following week; and whether a date is set for a leaders’ meeting.